How many specialists are missing?

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But there are even more IT specialists. The specialized Association of Computer and Information Technology Enterprises (APKIT) uses a different methodology and takes into account IT specialists who work not only in specialized companies, but also in other industries, such as telecom, mechanical engineering, and petrochemistry. APKIT statistics also include specialists with self-employed status. The organization's estimates were taken into account when developing the national project "Digital Economy" for 2019-2024, the association's executive director Nikolai Komlev told Vedomosti.

In December 2023 - January 2024, APKIT sweden whatsapp resource conducted a study in which it estimated the number of IT specialists and the personnel demand for them until 2030. At the beginning of 2024, there were 2.3 million employed IT specialists in Russia, or 3.1% of all employed in the country. For comparison: in 2010, IT specialists made up 1.5%, and in 2020 - 2.4% of employed people. Over the past three years, their number has increased by 500,000 people.

But in this indicator, Russia is ahead of only Romania (2.6% of employed people work in the IT sector, according to Eurostat), Greece (2.4%), and Bosnia and Herzegovina (2%) in Europe. We are behind most other European countries. The leaders here are Sweden (8.7%), Luxembourg (8%), and Finland (7.6%). On average, the share of IT specialists in the EU reaches 4.8% of the total number of employees. This is equivalent to 3.6 million employed people in Russia, i.e. the gap in the number of specialists is 1.3 million people. But APKIT is convinced that Russia will be able to reach this level by 2030.

The shortage of IT specialists in Russia is not a new problem and has been observed for the past 20 years, notes a representative of APKIT. This is also confirmed by the HSE, where they note that departments in IT specialties in universities in the country were the most frequently opened. In addition, Russia is in line with global trends in terms of the shortage of IT specialists: the demand for such specialists is caused by the rapid development of technology. This is the main reason for the shortage of personnel, and not the notorious outflow of specialists.

In March 2022, the Russian Association of Electronic Communications reported that 50,000–70,000 IT specialists left Russia in February and March of that year. Russoft's estimates were lower: 40,000 people left from February to May. In December 2022, Minister of Digital Development Maksut Shadayev noted that about 100,000 specialists, or 10% of the total number of workers in the industry, left Russia in 2022 and did not return. But the vast majority of them (80%) continued to work for Russian companies.

But in April 2024, the Ministry of Digital Development denied the information about a mass outflow of IT specialists. Two-thirds of the specialists who left in 2022 returned, and their total number increased last year, the ministry said.

In August 2023, Shadayev estimated the shortage of IT specialists at 500,000–700,000 people. A month later, Sberbank Chairman of the Board German Gref stated that the shortage of personnel in the IT industry was 1 million people. In his opinion, this problem will not be solved in the coming years, but artificial intelligence can replace them. According to the same APKIT forecasts, the total need for middle and top-level personnel in 2024 could be about 438,000 people.

The high demand for IT specialists is also indicated by the percentage of those who find employment. Among the 139,000 university graduates in the IT field in 2020–2022, 84% were able to find employment in their specialty, which was one of the best indicators. If we take the Computer and Information Sciences field, 94% of graduates worked in the field.