According to Capital Lab partner Evgeny Shatov, in the "good" scenario,

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From the point of view of strategic investors, "it would be more profitable to have a liquid market, retaining the possibility of incentive programs and a good shareholder history," the analyst is sure. "In a scenario without conversion, entering the business may be slightly cheaper for them, but the above-mentioned advantages are lost and the long-term prospects for the company's value worsen. And Yandex is still a growth company," Konstantin Belov reasons. The possibility israel whatsapp number database of using option programs is an important part of personnel incentive programs in the IT industry, the analyst recalled. "In conditions of a personnel shortage for the company's business, it is important to maintain the possibility of effectively using such programs, for which continuity and the presence of a liquid stock market are important, which is difficult to imagine in a scenario without conversion," he concluded.

Yandex will have new shares of the "Russian" company on the Moscow Exchange, into which it will be possible to convert Yandex NV shares. "The question of the conversion rate remains open. Some sources expect to see a conversion rate of 1:1 or close to this value, which will ultimately allow Russian minority shareholders to get a stake in the "Russian" Yandex without a foreign layer. This will be an excellent deal for them, and Yandex shares in this scenario look very interesting at the current price," he suggests. If the "bad" scenario is realized, Russian minority shareholders, together with foreign ones, "will be stuck in Yandex NV for a long time with unclear prospects, and some strange entity in its structure will be traded on the Moscow Exchange, which is unclear how to evaluate," Shatov warns.

In any of these scenarios, the deal is complicated by the fact that Yandex must simultaneously satisfy the demands of the Russian authorities, who are not very welcoming of deals with a large withdrawal of capital from the country and the "release" of frozen foreign investors, but also cannot sacrifice the interests of foreign shareholders, who control the majority of the company and will not agree to a deal that is bad for them, Shatov notes. "In addition, Yandex has at its disposal a decent foreign business outside the CIS, on which the company is placing a large bet, including in the "Russian" part, including taxis, delivery, which, most likely, will become impossible to develop if foreign investors suffer," he concludes.