If someone had a slip-up in terms of quality

[suchona.kani.z]

The instructor's observations were astute and accurate: praise was often followed by a disappointing performance, criticism was often followed by a better one. The conclusion drawn from this observation, however, was what is known as regression to the mean: all pilots had fluctuations in the quality of their flight maneuvers. This means that they inevitably had good and bad flights. Both were "slip-ups," in our case phases of strength or weakness. If someone achieved exactly their mean with their maneuver, they were neither criticized nor praised, because the result was "expected."
it is statistically very likely that the next result would be better. A very bad flight will most likely be followed by a better flight. And this is independent of whether the pilot was reprimanded or praised. The same applies the other way round: if someone had a "great day", it was very likely that the following result would be worse. Here too, it does not greece consumer email list matter whether they were praised or reprimanded. Every pilot had an expected mean value and it is statistically likely that a slip-up or slip-down will be corrected by the next attempt in such a way that the average is closer to the mean value.

The goal of training should therefore be to increase the mean and minimize the fluctuations around it (i.e. the “size” of the slip-ups).

concluding remarks
The same applies to securities: “History never repeats itself, but it often does rhyme.” If unprecedented events do not occur, then the mean will be reached in the long term! Even if the path to get there will most likely be different.

This insight can also be projected onto an "expected return". Therefore, when making promises of returns, always think about the influencing factors of stability (length of history) and unknown events. And in the current environment, also think about regression to the mean.

You can find more exciting topics from the adesso world in our previously published blog posts .